NIFTY 50

DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NOT A TRADING ADVICE, BUT ARE MY THOUGHTS / DISCUSSIONS WITH THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THE USEFUL APPLICATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.THIS IS FOR STUDY PURPOSE AND ENTERTAINMENT. WHILE DUE CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN PREPARING THESE NOTES/COMMENTS, NO RESPONSIBILITY CAN BE OR IS ASSUMED FOR ANY CONSEQUENCES RESULTING OUT OF ACTING ON THEM.TRADING IN STOCKS/COMMODITIES/FUTURES CARRY RISK.CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR / SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST ONLY BEFORE YOU TRADE.THIS IS NOT A BUY / SELL RECOMMENDATION AND NO STOCKS WILL BE DISCUSSED.ONLY BROAD MARKET TRENDS ARE DISCUSSED HERE.

NIFTY (10198.4)

I said on (30/10/2018) that for any bullishness to sustain NIFTY should first break 10290.65 and failure to break it may resume the downtrend. NIFTY made a high of 10285.1 and resumed it’s downward journey.

Break of 10290.65 and 10408.55 is a must for any upmove.So look for levels of 10004.55 on downside and 10290.65 / 10408.55 on the upside to see which way the market goes.

 

NIFTY 50

DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NOT A TRADING ADVICE, BUT ARE MY THOUGHTS / DISCUSSIONS WITH THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THE USEFUL APPLICATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.THIS IS FOR STUDY PURPOSE AND ENTERTAINMENT. WHILE DUE CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN PREPARING THESE NOTES/COMMENTS, NO RESPONSIBILITY CAN BE OR IS ASSUMED FOR ANY CONSEQUENCES RESULTING OUT OF ACTING ON THEM.TRADING IN STOCKS/COMMODITIES/FUTURES CARRY RISK.CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR / SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST ONLY BEFORE YOU TRADE.THIS IS NOT A BUY / SELL RECOMMENDATION AND NO STOCKS WILL BE DISCUSSED.ONLY BROAD MARKET TRENDS ARE DISCUSSED HERE.

NIFTY (10250.85)

NIFTY made a low of 10004.55 last Friday which was very near to my level of 9951.9 .It is too early to say whether NIFTY has bottomed out after the 220 point rally today. Any  break below 10004.55 in the next few days / weeks will result in resumption of downtrend.

If at all the uptrend has started, look at levels of  10290.65 /10408.55 and finally 10710.55 to be broken to the upside.Atleast the first 2 levels i.e 10290.65 and 10408.55 should be comfortably broken in the next few days.Failure to break the above two levels can also lead to resumption of downtrend.

 

NIFTY 50

Disclaimer : This is not a trading Advice, but are my thoughts / discussions with those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis.This is for study purpose and entertainment. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.Consult your financial advisor / SEBI registered Research Analyst only before you trade.This is not a buy / sell recommendation and no Stocks will be discussed.Only broad market trends are discussed here.

Short Term View :

NIFTY DAILY

Disclaimer : This is not a trading Advice, but are my thoughts / discussions with those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis.This is for study purpose and entertainment. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.Consult your financial advisor / SEBI registered Research Analyst only before you trade.This is not a buy / sell recommendation and no Stocks will be discussed.Only broad market trends are discussed here.

As mentioned in my earlier post of MONTHLY NIFTY, that trend is bearish and we may not see any new highs soon.Nifty is behaving exactly as mentioned.

I am showing the DAILY NIFTY chart below where IF AND ONLY IF the given count is right, i.e if we form 5 th wave as shown in pink letters, we can expect a short bounce or Pullback to 10700 -11100 levels .This 5 th wave completion happens only if we don’t make any new lows on Hourly charts.In other words, if on 24 th Oct we see a gap down opening or a normal opening and NIFTY sustains above the low on Hourly basis and this low is NOT broken on 25 th October also , we may have finished the 5 th wave of Wave 1 Circled in yellow.Only under these conditions we can expect a bounce.Also the 5 th wave completion can happen on any day even after 25 th also.So use your technical tools to confirm a bottom.The rally if it takes place is only a Pullback rally and not a Bull Market rally.

The BREAK of BLUE trendline drawn across points 2 and 4  on the chart is another way to confirm the completion of wave  5 of circled 1.But it will be very high e.g Oct 24 th value is 10586  , Oct 25 th is 10533 etc.A series of higher high-higher lows on Hourly charts also can be used as confirmation of completion of Wave 5 of circled 1.

Look for strong resistance at 10436, 10754-10843 areas if at all a bounce back happens.

But the overall monthly trend is down.

But if we make New LOWS every day or even once in 3 days  this view does not hold.

 

 

NIFTY

Disclaimer : This is not a trading Advice, but are my thoughts / discussions with those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis.This is for study purpose and entertainment. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.Consult your financial advisor / SEBI registered Research Analyst only before you trade.This is not a buy / sell recommendation and no Stocks will be discussed.Only broad market trends are discussed here.

NIFTY MONTHLY

Where the Correction in NIFTY is going to end ? In my opinion NIFTY needs to break 9951.9 and the first two options mentioned below will kick in namely Option 1 and Option 2.

If  NIFTY is not going to break 9951.9 in the nex 2-3 months, then Option 3 is going to kick in which is currently sideways and then bullish.

These are MONTHLY charts and may take time to evolve.Last week I had written in some forums regarding the bearish counts and on 15 th OCT when NIFTY started moving up many people asked me if the wave C has failed ? So this chart is not for Intraday Trading and next Monday or so but may even take 3-4 months to give a clear picture sometimes.

OPTION 1 

 In Option 1 above NIFTY is forming an Expanded Flat for wave( 4 )and needs to break 9951.9 and may bottom out somewhere around 9500-9200 region.And then wave 5 up will go to new High.

OPTION 2

 

 

This is the most Scary option.Anytime NIFTY touches 8968.7 be prepared for deeper correction in the RED Zone marked i.e 8968 – 7000.

Reason being  wave 4 cannot enter into price territory of wave 1 ( 8968.7).If we do so, then we may have finished an Impulse wave at 11760 and corrections will end at the area of wave 4 Zone ( red zone) i,e 8968-6826.

CONCLUSION : Looking for a break of 9951.9 and then consider which option looks probable.Look for corrections first in 9000-9200 area and then break of these levels to take NIFTY to lower levels mentioned.

If NIFTY Does not break 9951.9 in the next 2-3 months

If NIFTY does not break 9951.9 in the next few months look for OPTION 3 where I think a Running triangle is forming which is the most probable option. Triangles form  in the 4 th Waves.If so NIFTY may move sideways for few months and whipsaw your trades.After the completion of Triangle, wave 5 will go to new Highs.

OPTION 3